China’s steel market volatility and trade policy impact
China’s steel market experienced another round of price fluctuations this week, initially dipping before rebounding. Global market sentiment remains cautious, with investors concerned about a potential U.S. economic slowdown. Additionally, China’s Two Sessions meetings did not introduce any significant stimulus measures, keeping the macroeconomic environment weak and pressuring steel prices.
Within the steel sector, rebar demand and production continue to rise steadily, ensuring a stable supply. However, the hot-rolled coil market faces challenges due to overproduction and high inventories. Anti-dumping investigations are further restricting Chinese exports, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Steel futures hit a two-month low but rebounded after news of coal mine and crude steel production cuts.
Export prices have shown a slight decline, with the FOB price for HRC hovering around $465-470/MT. While domestic sales remain strong, export demand is weak. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s revised steel safeguard measures are tightening import quotas, cutting India’s allocation by 23.7% and Turkey’s by 14.4%. These policy changes could further shape the global steel trade in the coming months.
Source: CUMIC
Steel inventory trends and market impact
China’s steel market continues to witness notable shifts in demand, production, and inventory levels. This week, apparent steel demand increased by over 370,000 tons, contributing to a steady drawdown in total inventory by 470,000 tons. Meanwhile, production levels also saw an uptick, with steel mills ramping up operations—particularly in the rebar segment.
Among the five major steel products, hot-rolled coil recorded the most significant inventory drop, decreasing by more than 100,000 tons. This reduction signals a shift in market dynamics, potentially leading to price adjustments in the coming weeks.
Source: CUMIN
Currency trends and market implications
Currency fluctuations continue to influence global markets, with the US dollar index holding steady at 103.5 after strengthening earlier in the week. Investors remain cautious amid rising trade tensions, as the prospect of new reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect next month, adds to market uncertainty.
While softer-than-expected US consumer inflation data for February provided temporary relief, concerns persist over the long-term impact of these trade measures. The potential for inflation to accelerate in the coming months remains a key risk, particularly if tariffs disrupt supply chains and raise costs.
ENERGY NEWS
India’s NTPC allocates 1.2 GW wind-solar hybrid capacity at $0.039/kWh
India’s state-owned power producer NTPC has awarded contracts for 1.2 GW of wind-solar hybrid capacity, with an average tariff of $0.039/kWh (INR 3.35/kWh). NLC India secured the largest share of 450 MW, followed by Enfinity Global, Welspun Renewable Energy, and Adani Renewable Energy.
The auction, which aimed to enhance renewable energy integration into the national grid, saw competitive bidding among major developers. NLC India won its share with the lowest bid of INR 3.35/kWh, while Enfinity Global’s EG Solwin Renewables secured 300 MW, and Welspun Renewable Energy obtained 250 MW at the same price. Adani Renewable Energy claimed 200 MW at INR 3.36/kWh, slightly above the lowest bid.
Under the agreement, the winning developers will be responsible for building, owning, and operating the hybrid projects, which can be established anywhere in India, provided they connect to the interstate transmission system (ISTS).
This auction follows NTPC’s earlier allocation in January, where 1.2 GW of wind-solar hybrid capacity was awarded at an average tariff of INR 3.43/kWh. During that round, JSP Green (Jindal Renewables) secured 350 MW with the lowest bid of INR 3.38/kWh, while Adani Renewable Energy obtained 350 MW at INR 3.44/kWh. Other winners included Green Prairie Energy (200 MW), Ampin Energy (150 MW), and Adyant Enersol (Datta Infra) (150 MW), all at INR 3.44/kWh.
With these projects, NTPC continues to accelerate India’s renewable energy transition, reinforcing its commitment to hybrid solutions that optimize power generation efficiency and grid stability.
Source: PV Magazine , CUMIN
Image Source: CUMIC, Adani Green Energy